Tuesday, November 2, 2010

My Predictions

As of right now, from what I'm seeing, it's looking like an incredibly divided government.

The President will, of course, remain a Democrat.

The House will go to the Republicans.

The Democrats will hold on to the Senate.

and Republicans will hold a greater number of Governor mansions.

I am predicting a GOP gain in the House of 53-63 seats, but most likely in the high 50s. (I reserve my right to change this prediction later this afternoon.)

Now, to the Senate...

Republicans will hold on to their current seats in Idaho, Utah, Arizona, South Dakota, Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa, Missouri, Louisiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and New Hampshire.

That's 17 holds added to 23 currently held seats (not up for grabs in this election) for a total of 40.

Republicans will then win these seats currently held by Democrats: North Dakota, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Indiana

That brings their total seats to 44.

The Democrats will hold on to Oregon, California, Hawaii, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, Vermont, and both seats in New York.

That's 10 seats added to 40 currently held seats (not up for grabs in this election) for a total of 50.

Democrats will pick up ZERO seats currently held by a Republican Senator.

The swing states are Washington, Alaska, Nevada, Colorado, Illinois, and Pennsylvania.

But, even if the GOP were to win all 6, the Democrats would maintain control of the Senate thanks to VP Biden's vote as a tie breaker. But, it is likely that the Democrats take ONE of those six seats.

I think we are looking at a 52-48 Democratic senate, though 51-49 is also very likely.

Let's look at the Governor's races!

The Republicans will hold on to their current power in Nevada, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Alaska, Texas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Alabama and South Carolina.

That's 10 states added to the 6 currently held (not up for grabs this election) for a total of 16.

Republicans will then win these states currently governed by Democrats: Wyoming, New Mexico, Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa, Tennessee, Michigan, Pennsylvania.

That brings their total to 24 states.

The Democrats will hold on to their current power in Colorado, Arkansas, New York, and New Hampshire.

That's 4 states added to the 7 currently held (not up for grabs this election) for a total of 11.

Democrats will then win these states currently governed by Republicans: California, Hawaii, and Connecticut.

That brings their total to 14 states.

The toss-ups are Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio, Georgia, Florida, Maryland, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Maine.

So, in the end I believe we are looking at Democrats with 19 states, Republicans with 30, and Independents with 1 state.

-- Joseph Banks

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